Probabilistic Reasoning Regarding the Occurrence of Resurrection

Articles in Press

Document Type : Original Article

Author

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10.22067/epk.2026.98119.1528

Abstract

Resurrection is one of the principles of Islam, and belief in it has significant effects on life. Probabilistic reasoning is one of the arguments put forth, especially given the influential role of probability in empirical sciences. This article aims to determine the probability of Resurrection occurring, based on five areas of evidence: Near-Death Experiences (NDEs), Consciousness, Consensus Gentium (General Consensus) argument, Extrasensory Perceptions (ESPs), and the incorruptibility of the body after death. Bayes' theorem is used in this argument.The evidence forms the main part of the argument, with detailed explanations for and against Resurrection presented for each. By impartially considering each set of explanations for each piece of evidence, a specific probability percentage for occurrence, given the existence and non-existence of Resurrection, has been determined. Subsequently, by plugging the obtained numbers into Bayes' formula, the probability of Resurrection occurring, considering the chosen evidence, has been determined. The result shows this probability to be 84%.

Keywords

Concepts

symbols

evidence

calculation

sensitivity analysis

Subjects

• Islamic Philosophy and Kalam

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